Saturday, 7 November 2015

LSU vs. Alabama: Point Spread, Total & Prediction

LSU’s Leonard Fournette, college football’s leading rusher, faces the immovable object that is the Alabama Crimson Tide defense in a fairly mammoth college football betting matchup.

With Alabama hosting LSU in the annual SEC West rivalry game, coach Nick Saban’s Crimson Tide are listed as 6.5-point favorites against the Tigers at sportsbooks monitored by

The away team is 4-1 SU in the last five games in this matchup, while the team with more rushing yards has won five of the last six. The winner will be in the middle of the College Football Playoff picture.

Coach Les Miles’ LSU team is 7-0 SU and 4-3 ATS. Fournette has chipped in a Football Bowl Subdivision-leading 1,352 yards, 15 touchdowns and an average of 7.9 yards per carry to help LSU become the most efficient offense in the SEC, even though sophomore QB Brandon Harris has been sporadic.

The big back and his offensive line, led by RT Vadal Alexander and LT Jerald Hawkins, have a difficult matchup. Alabama allows just 2.6 YPC and has a physical 3-4 defense fronted by NT Darren Lake, DE Jarran Reed and DE A’Shawn Robinson.

Alabama is 7-1 SU and 3-5 ATS on the season. A more telling stat with coach Nick Saban’s perennial power might be that the Tide are 0-5 ATS in their last five outings at Bryant-Denny Stadium. Alabama is 9-1 SU in its last 10 games in November, however.

A big factor in facing Fournette might be that the Tide rotate 15 players through their front seven to keep defenders fresh for the fourth quarter and a potential overtime. Alabama has 14 players that have contributed to its SEC-leading 27 quarterback sacks.

Offensively, the Tide count on their own big back, RB Derrick Henry. The junior has already reached the 1,000-yard milestone, while QB Jake Coker has improved at playing a simple game and limiting mistakes.

The total for Saturday night’s LSU vs. Alabama betting matchup is set at 48 points at the sportsbooks. The total has gone over in LSU’s last six games. The OddsShark Computer is projecting a 32.4-31.1 LSU victory, but home field should turn the Tide to Alabama.

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